Approximate Value Functions and Online Planning
A handbook for solving large sequential decision problems using value-function approximation, receding-horizon control, rollouts, search, sparse sampling and Monte Carlo tree se…
Strategy articles in the KEVOS Business library. 56 pages.
A handbook for solving large sequential decision problems using value-function approximation, receding-horizon control, rollouts, search, sparse sampling and Monte Carlo tree se…
A handbook for planning when system state is uncertain, including belief-state value functions, offline and online POMDP planning, point-based methods and controller abstractions.
A handbook for coordinating multiple decision-makers with shared objectives when information is distributed, using decentralised partially observable models, communication and p…
A handbook for framing consequential decisions when outcomes are uncertain, combining objectives, alternatives, probability models, utility, information and sequential learning.
A handbook for balancing learning and performance in uncertain decision systems using bandit logic, model-based learning, model-free learning and controlled exploration.
A practical guide to estimating model parameters, Bayesian learning, non-parametric approaches, missing data and learning probabilistic model structure from evidence.
A practical guide to strategic interaction among multiple decision-makers using normal-form games, best responses, equilibrium concepts, repeated adaptation and Markov games.
A practical guide to directly optimising decision policies using parameterised policy search, gradient estimation, actor-critic architectures and stable optimisation practices.
A handbook for evaluating decision policies, estimating performance, testing rare-event risk, measuring robustness and using adversarial scenarios before deployment.
A practical guide to seven strategy principles: objective, initiative, concentration, manoeuvre, coordinated action, surprise and exploitation of advantage.
A handbook for answering probability queries in structured models using exact inference, variable elimination, message passing and Monte Carlo sampling methods.
A practical introduction to probability distributions, conditional probability, independence and Bayesian networks for representing uncertainty in business decision models.
A practical introduction to sequential decision problems, Markov decision processes, policies, value functions, Bellman equations and exact solution methods.
A detailed guide to decision making when the true state is partially observed, including belief states, Bayesian filtering, Kalman filters, extended and unscented filters, and p…
A detailed strategic-planning handbook built around five core questions, the right participants, facilitation, focused planning sessions and implementation discipline.
A handbook for separating strategy from budgeting, defining strategic objectives, renewing a business model and turning long-range intent into actionable choices.
A handbook for converting uncertain outcomes into rational choices using preference models, expected utility, decision networks and value-of-information analysis.
Trace AI from symbolic systems to deep learning and use emerging capability themes to plan realistic business scenarios without relying on hype.
Apply AI to facility design, day-to-day operations and quality control through clear use cases, safe integration and measurable operational outcomes.
Use AI and digital twins to improve supply-chain visibility, forecasting and scenario response while controlling data, model and execution risks.
Design AI-enabled segmentation and personalisation using clear objectives, meaningful features, testable treatments, privacy controls and incremental measurement.
Assess AI’s impact at task level and create a practical transition plan for augmentation, substitution, new work, reskilling and responsible change.
Control algorithmic bias through representative data, proxy analysis, subgroup evaluation, fairness review, governance and continuous monitoring.
Build an AI-ready data pipeline covering consistency, relevant features, missing data, bias, dataset scale, ownership and operational controls.
Source fidelity note: This handbook preserves the supplied source's concepts while making their application explicit for practical business application and review.
Source fidelity note: This handbook preserves the supplied source's concepts while making their application explicit for practical business application and review.
A handbook for turning habit systems into a long-term improvement cycle that combines fit, repetition, challenge, feedback, reflection and identity-based direction.
Source fidelity note: This handbook preserves the supplied source's concepts while making their application explicit for practical business application and review.
Source fidelity note: This handbook preserves the supplied source's concepts while making their application explicit for practical business application and review.
Source fidelity note: This handbook preserves the supplied source's concepts while making their application explicit for practical business application and review.
Why you set a strategy and how you build one — the four reasons to plan and the five sequential questions (where am I now, how did I get here, where do I want to be, how do I ge…
Move from AI ideas to governed implementation using opportunity selection, data readiness, experimentation, operating-model design and responsible scaling.
Source fidelity note: This handbook preserves the supplied source's concepts while making their application explicit for practical business application and review.
Study three historically grounded Google AI applications and extract a reusable framework for linking AI capability to customer and business value.
Source fidelity note: This handbook preserves the supplied source's concepts while making their application explicit for practical business application and review.
Source fidelity note: This handbook preserves the supplied source's concepts while making their application explicit for practical business application and review.
Source fidelity note: This handbook preserves the supplied source's concepts while making their application explicit for practical business application and review.
Source fidelity note: This handbook preserves the supplied source's concepts while making their application explicit for practical business application and review.
Govern autonomous and AI-assisted decisions by defining authority, values, risk boundaries, escalation, contestability and multidisciplinary oversight.
Choose among supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement learning by matching the learning signal, decision structure and available evidence to the business task.
Source fidelity note: This handbook preserves the supplied source's concepts while making their application explicit for practical business application and review.
Source fidelity note: This handbook preserves the supplied source's concepts while making their application explicit for practical business application and review.
Source fidelity note: This handbook preserves the supplied source's concepts while making their application explicit for practical business application and review.
Use AI responsibly across recruitment, learning, performance and promotion with human review, fairness testing, privacy controls and appeal pathways.
Source fidelity note: This handbook preserves the supplied source's concepts while making their application explicit for practical business application and review.
Source fidelity note: This handbook preserves the supplied source's concepts while making their application explicit for practical business application and review.
How a 331 BC battlefield became the finest masterclass in business strategy — objective, concentration of force, surprise and decisive execution, told through Alexander at Gauga…
A handbook for shifting from outcome fixation to repeatable systems, including how to design inputs, operating routines, feedback and continuous improvement around a desired dir…