EraNorth Insights

Knowledge for AI, engineering and complex organisational work.

Decision-grade perspectives across AI, strategy, projects, operations, engineering, leadership, governance and transformation.

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Risk and Resilience

An Expected Value in a Ranking's Clothes

Multiplying probability by impact is an expected-value calculation used as a ranking rule. It is correct only for an enterprise indifferent to variance.

decision rules expected value prioritisation risk appetite risk scoring variance

Portfolio Leadership

Risk-Informed Portfolio Selection: Why the Highest Return Is Not Always the Best Choice

How portfolio leaders can balance expected value, downside exposure, correlated risk, capacity and strategic resilience when selecting investments.

expected value investment selection portfolio risk resilience risk appetite

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